Diammonium winter storage price "difficulty"

In mid-October, domestic exports of diammonium in autumn and off-season have ended in succession, and new orders for enterprises have turned slow, waiting for the start of the winter storage market. It is expected that the manufacturers' diammonium winter storage policy will be introduced at the end of October, but the winter storage market will be finally clear after the phosphorus compound fertilizer meeting. Hubei 64% diammonium mainstream factory prices in autumn from 2700-2750 yuan / ton, Guizhou 64% diammonium to station offer 2800-2850 yuan / ton, Yunnan 64% diammonium station offer 2900-3000 yuan / ton. It is understood that this year's winter storage policy or continuation of the autumn high before the first payment, late settlement. Hubei 64% diammonium Northeast, Xinjiang tentative arrival price or at 2850-2900 yuan / ton, Yunnan-Guie 64% diammonium Northeast scheduled arrival price or at 3000-3100 yuan / ton, combined ex-factory price 2500-2600 yuan / t, slightly lower than the autumn price, but it has not yet been confirmed.

Domestic market: Due to the end of the season, the grass-roots markets in North China, East China and Northwest China have started to dump cargo. Currently, Shandong, Hebei, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ning, and other places 64% diammonium mainstream outbound price of 2700-2800 yuan / ton, the retail price of 140-150 yuan / bag. After the end of the autumn, the winter storage closely followed. At present, traders in the northeast and Xinjiang regions began to increase their inquiries. However, due to the unclear winter storage policy, most winter storage companies still wait and see. Although the company started to negotiate with its winter storage orders, the final sales policy is still brewing, and the quota for diammonium to the station is relatively confusing. In Hubei and Guizhou, 64% of diammonium is destined for RMB 2900-2950/ton in the Northeast, 57% in diammonium is RMB 2550-2600/ton, and 64% of diammonium in Yunnan-Guizhou region is quoted at RMB 3050/ton in Xinjiang Xinjiang, which is currently not Mainstream arrival price.

Export situation: China's off-season exports of phosphate fertilizers were closed on October 15th, but the company still had pre-orders that were not yet completed. Some of the diammonium sources entered the bonded area and were later loaded on the ship. According to statistics, the inventory of diammonium in major ports in China is about 470,000 tons. At present, diammonium sales in India are still good, but after mid-November, the demand for diammonium imports will gradually fade. In October, China's diammonium enterprises (open phosphorus, Yuntianhua, etc.) still have some small units flowing to the Indian market, and 64% of diammonium prices are priced at CFR India at US$490/ton.

Overall: Although the autumn market has ended, but the previous period, driven by exports, there is not much inventory in the enterprise and the market. It is expected that diammonium prices will remain high before the end of October. However, in the autumn and after the end of the export, the diammonium enterprise's center of gravity has shifted to the winter storage market. With sufficient supply, prices have expected to fall.

Opinion: If the company takes the pre-acceptance and tentative pricing to take delivery, there will be no major decline in winter storage prices. If the buyout price is lower, the price must be lower. The changes in the state's light storage policy, fertilizer VAT, and export tariff policies in the later period have a greater impact on the market and are closely watched.