Abstract This week (12.25-12.29), the domestic steel market price continued to fall sharply this week, and construction steel prices continued to lead. This week, the spot price and futures price fell simultaneously, and the spot market defeated the strength of the upper cycle goods market. As of December 29, 2017...

This week (12.25-12.29), the domestic steel market price continued to fall sharply this week, and construction steel prices continued to lead. This week, the spot price and futures price fell simultaneously, and the spot market defeated the strength of the upper cycle goods market. As of December 29, 2017, the Lange Steel Composite Price Index reached 166.2 points, down 2.94% from the previous weekend; Lange Steel Long Product Price Index reached 180.4 points, down 5.03% from last weekend; Lange Steel Sheet Price Index reached 152.9 points, down 1.17% from last Friday.
Spot stocks of construction steel continued to increase in most parts of the country this week. Although the willingness of traders to increase their stocks is still very low, the arrival of steel mills is gradually increasing, and the sales volume is relatively limited this week, resulting in overall stocks. Increase. This week, some areas of North China and East China have seen smoggy weather again. Tangshan, Handan, Anyang, and Jiangxi have all raised the warning level of heavy pollution weather, either red or orange, but it has not caused the market in a relatively sluggish situation. Larger waves. The main contradiction in the steel market this week is still two, the demand is seasonally weakened, and the absolute demand for high prices is insufficient. The two weak ones lead to poor sales of steel mills and traders. increase. This week, local areas and varieties showed a certain rebound during the decline. For example, Tangshan's steel billets rebounded from a minimum of 3,650 yuan to 3,680 yuan; Hebei, Shandong, and Jiangsu provinces have a small daily price of steel mills. There was a slight rebound. In the process of continuous plunge, some rigid purchasing demand will be restrained. After the price is slightly stabilized, this part of the rigid demand release increases the purchase; at the same time, the current steel price has dropped by 200-900 yuan, especially the decline. Larger varieties, very few of the daring traders began to enter the winter storage, but the amount is still very limited, resulting in a price rebound is not strong, the foundation is not solid.
As for the specific spot price of construction steel , the monitoring data of Lange Steel's cloud business platform shows that as of December 29, the average price of Φ25mm third-grade rebar in the top 10 key cities in China is 4391 yuan, down 224 yuan from last Friday, compared with last month. In the same period, it fell 215 yuan. This week, Shanghai and Tianjin fell as much as 310-350 yuan, Zhengzhou, Xi'an, Beijing, Wuhan, Hangzhou, Shenyang, Chengdu fell 200-290 yuan, Guangzhou fell 170 yuan. As of December 29, the average price of Φ6.5mm and HPB300 high-line in the top 10 key cities in China was 4,637 yuan, down 202 yuan from last Friday and 178 yuan from the same period of last month. This week, Shanghai fell 360 yuan, Tianjin, Zhengzhou fell 50-90 yuan, Wuhan fell 170 yuan, Guangzhou, Shenyang, Beijing, Xi'an, Chengdu, Hangzhou and other cities fell 201-240 yuan.
According to the monitoring data of Lange Steel's cloud business platform, as of December 29, the social inventory of construction steel in 29 key cities nationwide reached 3.387 million tons, an increase of 9.29 million tons from last Friday, 2.81%, down 6.44% from the same period of last month. And 23.45% lower than the same period last year. From the perspective of various cities, the northern leading city of Beijing has a stock of 126,800 tons, an increase of 14.8 million tons from last Friday, with a range of 10.72%; Tianjin stocks of 57,600 tons, an increase of 2 million tons, an increase of 3.59%. The southern leading city Shanghai stocks 270,400 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from last Friday, an increase of 6.7%; Hangzhou stocks 227,900 tons, an increase of 10.8 million tons, an increase of 4.97%; Guangzhou stocks of 635,500 tons, down 31,000 tons, an amplitude of 4.66%; The inventory of Chengdu, a major town in the west, was 220,000 tons, down 0.6 million tons from the previous weekend, with a range of 2.66%. Xi'an had a stock of 166,600 tons, down 11,000 tons last week, with a range of 6.2%.
Regarding the price of hot rolled coil of sheet metal , the monitoring data of Lange Steel's cloud business platform shows that as of December 29, the average price of 5.5mm hot rolled coil in 10 key cities in China is 4,286 yuan, down 70 yuan from last Friday. It rose by 73 yuan in the same period last month. Among them, Wuhan is stable, Shanghai, Shenyang, Hangzhou, Xi'an, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Chengdu are down 20-90 yuan, Guangzhou and Beijing are down 110-170 yuan. In terms of inventory, as of December 29, the total inventory of hot rolled coils in 29 key cities in China reached 1,632,100 tons, an increase of 1.82 million tons from the previous Friday, which was 1.12%, 8.02% lower than the same period of last month and higher than the same period of last year. 1.67%. The southern leading city Shanghai stocks were 340,500 tons, down 0.2 million tons last Friday, with a range of 0.61%; Guangzhou stocks 376,000 tons, an increase of 0.3 million tons, an increase of 0.8%. The market in the northern leading city of Tianjin was 72,000 tons, an increase of 0.1 million tons, with a range of 1.4%.
As for the price of cold rolled coil, as of December 29, the average price of 1.0mm CRC in 10 key cities in China was 4,968 yuan, down 40 yuan from last Friday's price and up 125 yuan from the same period of last month. This week, Shanghai, Wuhan and Guangzhou were stable, and Beijing, Chengdu, Zhengzhou, Shenyang, Xi'an, Hangzhou and Tianjin fell 30-100 yuan. In terms of inventory, as of December 29, the inventory of cold-rolled coils in 24 key cities in China was 795,900 tons, down 0.71 million tons from last Friday, 0.89%, 4.87% lower than the same period of last month and 22.12 lower than the same period of last year. %.
In terms of plate prices, as of December 29, the price of 20mm medium plate in 10 key cities in China was 4248 yuan, down 59 yuan from last Friday and up 28 yuan from the same period of last month. Shenyang was stable this week, with prices ranging from 30-90 yuan in Chengdu, Chengdu, Beijing, Wuhan, Shanghai, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Xi'an and Guangzhou. In terms of inventory, as of December 29, the inventory of medium and heavy plates in 29 key cities in China reached 981,400 tons, an increase of 0.92 million tons from the previous Friday, with a range of 0.94%, down 0.68% from the previous month and 15.44% higher than the same period last year.
It is predicted that domestic construction steel inventories have rebounded for two consecutive weeks, while the construction steel inventory of straight-line steel mills has rebounded for three consecutive weeks, but from the overall growth rate, it is still relatively mild, and the inventory growth rate is compared with the previous inventory deceleration. Still very slow. At present, the inventory of construction steel in the country is still 23% lower than that of the same period of last year. The inventory of major cities such as Beijing, Tianjin and Hangzhou is basically only about the same period of last year, and it is still at a low level in the past seven years. The current market concern is not mainly about the fear of absolute quantity, but about the fear of late growth. From now on, to the traditional sales season in mid-March, there is still a 70-day inventory growth period. Now large-scale agreement households, including direct-selling steel mills, want to minimize their inventory levels before the arrival of a large inventory accumulation period. Therefore, although the current total inventory level is not high, the willingness of steel mills and merchants to reduce the price of shipments Still strong.
On the contrary, most of the customers who do not have the pressure on the fixed agreement of the steel mill are still waiting to see. One is the problem of time. It takes more than two months to stock, or even longer, a little longer. Then there is the problem of price. Although there has been a sharp fall, the price of finished steel in most areas is above 4,000 yuan. This price is 300-500 yuan higher than the average price in 2017. From the probability See, the possibility of profit is still much less likely than the loss, so from the price level, it also needs to wait.
During the New Year's Day holiday, inventory will continue to grow. This is undoubted. After the holiday, the pressure on the overall steel market is still relatively large. The author believes that after the New Year's Day, the national steel market prices will still be mainly down, but the overall price decline rate and range are much milder than the previous two weeks. In the middle and late January, it is likely that there will be a gradual emergence of goods and purchases, which will form a certain support for steel prices.

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