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It is expected that in the second half of the year, the downward pressure on the economy will remain large, and the situation of SMEs will be difficult to be optimistic. With the advancement of industrial restructuring, SMEs will show an intensification of differentiation; the continuous improvement of the entrepreneurial environment will lead to the new stage of public entrepreneurship; Continue to exert strength, the policy dividend will be fully released.
A Basic characteristics Economic growth slows down SMEs' economic vitality SMEs' overseas demand is weak In the first half of 2015, the world's major economies gradually recovered, but the recovery process was slow. From a regional perspective, the US ISM manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) exceeded expectations in May, rising to 52.8. Although the manufacturing growth rate rebounded from the lowest level in the past two years in April, the PMI growth rate from February to the present has increased. Negative value, and the trend of the rebound of the ring is unstable, and the economic recovery is not stable.
The economic growth of the Eurozone is still facing greater resistance and is in a slow recovery phase. In the first half of 2015, the manufacturing PMI of the Eurozone was between 51 and 52.2, slightly higher than the watershed, and the economic growth pressure was still large, and the economic recovery was still weak. However, compared with the 2014 trough, the PMI value in the first half of 2015 slowly recovered, and the gap between the PMI and the same period last year continued to narrow. Overall, the euro zone is in a period of moderate economic recovery.
Japan’s real GDP in the first quarter was 3.9% higher than the final value of the year, better than the expected 2.8%, and the economy recovered slowly. However, the Japanese manufacturing PMI has been floating up and down in the boom and watershed 50, and even fell below the critical line with a value of 49.9 in April. The recovery momentum is still not stable.
Small business PMI low fluctuations In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.2, which remained above the critical point for three consecutive months. The overall trend was stable. The small business PMI always fluctuated within the range of 46.0~49.0, and the overall operation was not optimistic. However, compared with the lowest value in December 2014, the PMI value of small enterprises has gradually recovered, and the overall situation is in a slow bottoming phase.
The macroeconomic growth slowed down in the first half of the year. China's macro economy maintained a steady and moderate trend. The downward pressure was still relatively large. The growth rate of investment and consumption declined year-on-year. Exports experienced negative growth for three consecutive months. The “troika†was insufficiently motivated. In terms of investment, from January to May, national fixed asset investment increased by 11.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 4.3 percentage points from the end of 2014; private fixed asset investment increased by 12.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 6 percentage points from the end of 2014.
In terms of consumption, the total retail sales of social consumer goods fell from 10.7% at the beginning of 2015 to 10.1% in May. Consumption growth slowed down, and the role of consumption in driving economic growth has not been fully realized.
The growth rate of exports has dropped significantly. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, from March to May 2015, the export value of the month decreased by 14.6%, 6.2%, and 2.8% respectively. The cumulative export volume from January to May increased by only 0.8%, almost the same as last year. optimism. In the case of sluggish import and export data, the performance of private enterprises is very eye-catching. In the first quarter, private enterprises imported and exported 315.41 billion US dollars, of which exports increased by 12.2% year-on-year. The contribution rate of China's total exports increased to 105.7%, which became the main force driving export growth. It is worth noting that, affected by the “One Belt, One Road†national strategy, in May, China’s exports to Bangladesh, Pakistan, Israel and other countries along the Belt and Road are all above 20%.
B Problems existed. Endogenous development motivation is insufficient. Entrepreneurial innovation and vitality have failed to stimulate entrepreneurial vitality. Entrepreneurial support policies such as commercial system reform and tax reduction have not been fully stimulated. This has further stimulated the entrepreneurial vitality of SMEs and set off a wave of mass entrepreneurship and innovation. The existence of constraints such as imperfect entrepreneurial service system, unsound entrepreneurial ecology and lack of entrepreneurial system have made the entrepreneurial vitality of SMEs not fully stimulated.
The entrepreneurial service system is not perfect. Take the central government's investment of 5.1 billion yuan in the public service platform network for small and medium-sized enterprises. Although the platform network now covers 35 provinces, municipalities, districts and cities with separate plans, due to poor construction foundation, inadequate local fund support, and insufficient publicity. For other reasons, the SME public service platform network also has problems such as inadequate service functions, low service levels, lack of featured services, and poor sustainability, which restricts the role of the SME public service platform network in entrepreneurial innovation.
The entrepreneurial environment is still not perfect. The entrepreneurial culture has not yet fully penetrated the hearts of the people. The entrepreneurial culture that respects entrepreneurship, protects entrepreneurship, and inclusive entrepreneurship is not rich enough; universities, research institutes and enterprises have not yet achieved seamless integration, and the channels for scientific and technological achievements are not smooth, which affects the research and development enthusiasm of researchers; The talent flow mechanism between government institutions, large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises is not perfect, which restricts the free flow of talents; the access to venture capital is limited, and the acquisition of entrepreneurial financial resources is difficult, which restricts the entrepreneurial process.
The entrepreneurial support system is missing. Although the state has introduced a series of policy measures to promote entrepreneurship, there are still many systems missing in many aspects. For example, the entrepreneurship training support system for different groups, the special taxation for start-up enterprises, the social security policy system, the entrepreneurial failure relief system, and the enterprise exit mechanism are still not perfect.
The pace of transformation and upgrading is relatively slow In the first half of 2015, the international market was sluggish, the domestic market demand was insufficient, and the demographic dividend gradually declined, which forced the transformation and upgrading of SMEs. However, due to factors such as shortage of funds, shortcomings in technology, and shortage of talents, the overall pace of transformation and upgrading is relatively slow. For example, in Dongguan, Guangdong Province, since June 2014, the company has promoted the “machine substitution†action plan. As of June 2015, only 200 SMEs in the region have successfully completed the “machine substitution†program and completed the “machine substitution†program. The company only accounts for 4% of the city's small and medium-sized enterprises.
Insufficient endogenous development momentum In the first half of 2015, China's macroeconomic growth rate slowed down, the troika power was insufficient, and corporate costs remained high, making SMEs less optimistic. As of April 2015, the cumulative value of industrial added value of China's above-scale industries fell by 0.2 percentage points compared with that of March, of which private enterprises fell by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year.
At the same time, the endogenous development momentum of SMEs is insufficient, and the willingness to actively develop is not strong. According to the survey of bankers issued by the People's Bank of China, although the loan demand index of large, medium and small enterprises in the first quarter increased slightly compared with the fourth quarter of 2014, the increase was small, and the financing demand of SMEs remained weak.
C Trend Outlook The situation of SMEs is difficult to be optimistic. The dividends will be fully released. The downward pressure on the economy is still relatively large, and the situation of SMEs is difficult to be optimistic. Although China's manufacturing PMI increased slightly in May, it is still in a low-level operation stage. The growth rate of private fixed assets investment and total social retail consumer goods showed a downward trend. The CPI was in the “1st era†for 10 consecutive months, and the PPI continued to grow for 38 consecutive months. . Various economic data show that the downward pressure on the macro economy is still large, and the situation is not optimistic. It is expected that the macro economy will still be in a stable stage in the second half of the year, and it will be difficult to increase it in the short term. The situation facing SMEs will remain arduous.
Under the background of the “new normal†in which the industrial structure intensifies the differentiation of small and medium-sized enterprises, the market, environment and resource pressures are forced to adjust and upgrade the industrial structure. Emerging industries that adapt to the needs of the times will maintain rapid growth. In the first quarter of 2015, the accumulated operating income of 27 key industries in strategic emerging industries increased by 11.1% year-on-year. Among them, the operating income of strategic emerging industries increased by 10.1%, and the growth rate was five times that of the overall industrial growth rate; 17.7%, much higher than the negative growth of the overall industrial profit growth rate.
In line with this background, SMEs in strategic emerging industries are developing rapidly, while some traditional industries with high energy consumption and high pollution have a severe market environment. SMEs in this industry continue to rely on traditional paths, which are not only difficult to sustain, but also face The consequences of market elimination. It is foreseeable that with the further adjustment of the industrial structure in the future, the development momentum of SMEs in strategic emerging industries will continue to be strong, and the trend of SME development and differentiation will continue.
The entrepreneurial environment will continue to improve the commercial system reform, tax reduction and other policies that support entrepreneurship have achieved remarkable results. From March 1, 2014 to the end of May 2015, more than 16 million new registered enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households nationwide; in the first quarter of 2015, college graduates, unemployed persons, disabled persons and other entrepreneurs were employed for employment and reduced taxes of 392,300 yuan. Nearly 500,000 people have been employed. In the next step, the country will continue to optimize the entrepreneurial environment and create the “best entrepreneurial era†for entrepreneurs.
On the one hand, the in-depth promotion of the reform of the commercial system will further lower the threshold for entrepreneurship; on the other hand, the establishment of the National Emerging Industry Venture Capital Guidance Fund to help entrepreneurial innovation and industrial upgrading, and the “Office of the State Council on the development of the space to promote mass innovation and entrepreneurship†The role of policy documents such as "Guidance Opinions", "Opinions of the State Council on Further Improving Employment and Entrepreneurship under the New Situation", and "Notice on Supporting the Development of Small and Micro Enterprises' Entrepreneurship Innovation Base City Demonstration Work" will gradually emerge from funds, services, etc. Aspects to optimize the entrepreneurial environment. In addition, measures to clean up the regulations on enterprise charges, reduce the on-grid price of coal-fired power generation and the price of industrial and commercial electricity, and determine the acceleration of the construction of high-speed broadband networks to promote speed-up and reduce the cost of promoting entrepreneurial facilitation will be gradually carried out, and the policy dividend will be further released and promoted. Volkswagen entrepreneurship has entered a new era.
The policy dividend will be fully released in the second half of the year, and a series of support policies for SMEs such as financing support and foreign trade convenience will gradually become effective and inject new vitality into SMEs.
In terms of financing, the central bank is expected to continue to cut interest rates and lower the standard, and monetary policy is expected to continue to be relatively loose. Although the effect of the steady growth policy has been initially effective, the current manufacturing growth momentum is insufficient, and the overall financing demand is weak, and it is still necessary to loosen monetary policy escort. In addition, China has a need to promote interest rate liberalization and reduce corporate financing costs. It is predicted that the government is expected to continue to introduce targeted easing policies in the second half of the year.
In terms of foreign trade, the efforts of the "Several Opinions on Supporting Stable Growth of Foreign Trade" and other policies will accelerate the optimization of the foreign trade structure of SMEs. Affected by factors such as rising labor costs, increasing resource constraints, and overseas companies' seizure of the domestic market, the traditional foreign trade model that relies on low-cost advantages is difficult to survive, and will gradually move from the traditional “big-in and big-out†model to “youjinyouâ€. “Mode changeâ€, selectively importing shortage of advanced technology, key equipment and important parts and components, and promoting the export of high-end, high value-added products, technologies and services. In addition, favorable policies in foreign trade will also help SMEs to explore overseas market space. For example, the China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement signed on June 1st, the ratio of liberalization of goods trade between the two sides exceeds 90% of the tax purposes and 85% of the trade volume. The substantial reduction of tariffs will further save the export costs of SMEs, and will help SMEs to seize the international market.
D Policy recommendations Increase policy implementation to accelerate the transformation and upgrading of SMEs. Continue to optimize the development environment for SMEs. First, further implement the innovative and entrepreneurial policies that have been introduced, including the “Guiding Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Developing Massive Space to Promote Public Innovation and Entrepreneurshipâ€. "Opinions of the State Council on Further Doing a Good Job in Employment and Entrepreneurship under the New Situation" and "Implementation Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Deepening the Reform of Innovation and Entrepreneurship Education in Colleges and Universities" to further lower the threshold for entrepreneurship and stimulate the enthusiasm for entrepreneurship.
Second, further implement the "Suggestions on Supporting Stable Growth of Foreign Trade" and other measures to support the steady growth of foreign trade, and accelerate the pace of "going out" of SMEs by reducing tariffs and supporting cross-border e-commerce.
Stimulate the innovation and entrepreneurial vitality of SMEs. First, highlight the service functions of SMEs' public service platform in entrepreneurship, accelerate the improvement of entrepreneurial service level, and carry out different and focused entrepreneurship training for different entrepreneurial groups such as college students, laid-off workers and migrant workers. And services such as the interpretation of entrepreneurial policies to improve the success rate of entrepreneurship.
The second is to improve the management mechanism of entrepreneurial talents, introduce policies from household registration, children's enrollment, and social security, remove obstacles that hinder the flow of talents, and promote the rational allocation of human resources.
The third is to establish an entrepreneurial failure relief system, set up a business failure compensation mechanism according to the type of enterprise, industry category, etc., establish a failure fund for entrepreneurial failure, relieve the worries of entrepreneurs, and encourage more people to venture and innovate.
Accelerating the transformation and upgrading of SMEs First, increase the focus on the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, comply with the inherent requirements of the market, eliminate some low-end SMEs with high pollution and high energy consumption, and guide traditional industries to rely on technological innovation, product innovation, and model innovation. With the help of cloud computing, big data, mobile Internet, Internet of Things and other new-generation information means to achieve transformation and upgrading, increase financial and taxation support, and promote the pace of transformation and upgrading of traditional industries.
The lack of economic vitality is not optimistic for the situation of SMEs. Second, it is necessary to vigorously support the development of emerging industries. In the context of the “new normal†of the economy, emerging industries are more prominent in stimulating economic development and driving employment. We should further increase support for emerging industries, clarify objectives, strengthen support, clarify the path, and promote the stable and healthy development of emerging industries.
The third is to strengthen publicity, unify ideas, effectively integrate entrepreneurship and innovation, promote innovation by innovation, and avoid low-end repetitive entrepreneurship, which not only helps to raise the level of entrepreneurship, promote industrial upgrading, but also contribute to the success rate of entrepreneurship. In particular, it is appropriate to pay attention to SMEs after “mass entrepreneurship†and introduce relevant policies to support them to pass the risk period.
Abstract “In the first half of 2015, the demand for small and medium-sized enterprises in overseas markets was weak, the growth momentum of domestic demand was insufficient, and the economic vitality of small and medium-sized enterprises was insufficient. In the first half of the year, the international market recovered slowly and the demand in overseas markets was weak. On the domestic demand side, the macroeconomic growth rate was stable. Slow, &ld...
“In the first half of 2015, the demand for small and medium-sized enterprises in the overseas market was weak, the growth momentum of domestic demand was insufficient, and the economic vitality of small and medium-sized enterprises was insufficient. In the first half of the year, the international market recovered slowly, and the overseas market demand was weak. On the domestic demand side, the macroeconomic growth rate slowed down. The “Troika†lacks power; the small business PMI fluctuates at a low level, but it is in a slow bottoming phase. The problems in the first half of the year are mainly due to some restrictive factors affecting the innovation vitality of SMEs, and the pace of transformation and upgrading is still slow. The endogenous development momentum of SMEs is insufficient.