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According to the report, the province's GDP-weighted average growth rate in the first quarter of this year was 8%, down 1.6 percentage points from last year's 9.6%, and the decline was much higher than the 0.3% decline in the national GDP growth rate over the same period. Report projection:
“In the past ten years, the province’s GDP weighted growth rate was on average 2% higher than the national GDP growth rate. Assuming that there has not been a big change in this relationship, then according to the first quarter, the province’s weighted 8% GDP growth rate is reversed. GDP growth may have dropped to around 6%."
Among them, the GDP growth rate of Heilongjiang in the first quarter was only 4.1%; the GDP growth rate of Hebei and Shanxi was only 4.2% and 5.5%, both of which were the lowest since 2005; the GDP growth rate of Jilin, Inner Mongolia and Ningxia also fell. About 7%.
The report believes that overcapacity, debt accumulation and the bursting of the real estate bubble respectively restrict the expansion of manufacturing, infrastructure and real estate investment, which also means that the investment-driven Midwest economy is the biggest risk zone for future economic downturn.
The report mentioned that the average national investment in the first quarter fell by 2.6%, of which 4.2% in the western region, especially in Heilongjiang.
The Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee held on the 25th of this month set the tone for the short-term policy stance, emphasizing the need to continue to adhere to the general tone of steady progress, and believes that both fiscal and monetary policies must adhere to the sound and active existing policy tone, but Adjust policies in a timely manner according to changes in the situation, achieve the expected goals, and increase the support for the real economy.
The above-mentioned Haitong Securities report believes that under the background of stable employment, the main micro-stimulus policy is still in the areas of shantytown renovation, energy conservation and environmental protection, and service industry consumption. After the start of monetary easing, it is expected that the People's Bank of China may continue to target downgrades to support economic restructuring.
The Goldman Sachs Gaohua Research Report predicts that the Chinese government will further introduce temperate and targeted relaxation measures, such as further relaxing the restrictions on access to infrastructure, and may also relax real estate-related policies for the overall weakness of the real estate sector, but relax the restrictions on purchases, etc. The problem will be particularly low-key.
This month's Bureau of Statistics announced that China's GDP grew by 7.4% year-on-year in the first quarter, a new low since the financial crisis.
The Bureau of Statistics reported that the national economy was in a reasonable range in the first quarter, and structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading continued to make new progress. At the same time, we must also see that the external environment is still complex and volatile, and there is still some downward pressure on the domestic economy. (Source: Wall Street News)
Yesterday, the National Information Center released a report in the China Securities Journal. It is estimated that China's GDP will increase by 7.4% in the second quarter, industrial added value will increase by about 9.1%; CPI will rise by about 2.3%, and PPI will fall by about 1.1%.
According to the National Information Center report, the downward pressure on the current economic operation is obvious, and the real estate market has experienced the risk of adjustment. The local government financing platform has entered the peak of debt repayment, and the overcapacity has been faced with the problem of laid-off unemployment, which has led to an increase in financial risks. The report recommends strengthening short-term liquidity adjustments and, if necessary, moderately reducing the deposit reserve ratio.
In the middle of this month, Premier Li Keqiang said during the opening of the Boao Forum that he will not launch a short-term strong stimulus policy:
"We will not adopt a short-term strong stimulus policy for the current economic fluctuations, but will pay more attention to the healthy development of the medium and long-term, and strive to achieve sustainable and healthy development of the Chinese economy."
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The first quarter data released by China's provinces last week showed that the average growth rate of GDP in the province was much lower than that of the national GDP, and the central and western regions became the hardest hit by the economic downturn. The latest research report of Haitong Securities believes that the economic decline in the first quarter was mainly due to the decline in investment, and the investment in the central and western regions fell even more. The investment-driven model made the central and western regions the region with the greatest risk of future economic downturn.