Chemical Industry June bottomed out

The domestic chemical market has fallen more and less in the past six months. Of the 109 chemical representative products monitored by the business community, only 19 were up-rising, accounting for 17.43% of the monitored varieties. For the market, the industry believes that the domestic chemical industry in the first half of this year is much lower than last year's, 7-9 months or the bottom of the witness line down, but the overall rebound will be officially started in the early fourth quarter.

According to the price index monitored by the Business Club, the chlor-alkali plate performed relatively well during the week before the Dragon Boat Festival. The two products, ** and soda ash, continued to rise in the near future, while the fluorinated workers index fell to 675 points and the fertilizer index fell to 849 points. A record low; the bromine chemical industry, phosphorus chemical industry, although the two major plate does not have much highlights, but compared with the market in the previous two years is still at a relatively high position, the room for further adjustment.

In general, under the circumstances that the economy at home and abroad is not economically as a whole, it is difficult for the chemical industry to have its own magic weapon. From the perspective of the domestic market, the domestic market demand in the first and second quarters is characterized by “premature start-up and insufficient stamina”. According to the reporter's understanding, during the Spring Festival, mid-stream and downstream enterprises stocked earlier, but they failed to usher in the spring market as usual, and the demand for the industrial chain fell to the upper reaches of the upstream enterprises, causing the chemical industry to fall into the light of the entire industry chain in June. From the perspective of the international market, exports of soda ash, urea and other products have increased significantly compared with last year, but the increase is based on the company's sharp loss of profit.

Domestic urea manufacturers generally reflect that, despite the significant increase in urea exports in the first five months of this year compared to last year, there is a huge pressure on domestic sales. A person in charge of the urea plant said that many large distributors who took delivery during the second-third quarter of last year only made orders this year. The manufacturers were forced to cut prices to ease the pressure on the stocks. On the one hand, they participated in international bidding at a level much lower than the export benchmark price, and on the other hand attracted dealers to get goods at a rate of 20-50 yuan/ton per day. The above-mentioned “slow market” only appeared after the global financial crisis in 2009.

Regarding the overall weakness in the chemical market, Zhang Ming, a chemical industry analyst at Shangshe, told the Shanghai Daily that “multiple negatives in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are “resonant” and the overall industry rebound must wait until the third quarter at the earliest.” The “resonance” phenomenon was explained. “The cost support is weak and the market demand is weak. The operating rate is 60-70% higher for a long time. Under the pressure of three big mountains, the fluorine chemical industry chain starts from the source fluorite to the downstream R22, R134a, and then to PTFE. , the overall price could not be inhibited all the way down."

This is not only the case of fluorinated workers. The trend of the chemical market since the beginning of the year has been basically unilaterally down, and new industrial chains have continued to join the “entire down” camp. According to this, Zhang Ming stated that the chemical industry, which originally believed that the end of June should be bottomed out, was most optimistic that it would take until September to see a decent rebound.