The 2012 China Development Forum, hosted by the Development Research Center of the State Council, was held from March 17th to March 19th with the theme of “China and the World: Macroeconomics and Structural Adjustment”. At the opening ceremony of the annual meeting on March 18th, Li Keqiang, member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, pointed out that at present, China's reform has entered a crucial period. We must persist in striving for stability, base ourselves on expanding domestic demand, strengthen innovation drive, rely on reform and opening up, speed up transfer and adjustment of structure, and maintain stable and rapid economic development in the long run. China’s reform has now entered a crucial period. Li Keqiang said that the current world economic recovery and growth prospects are still unclear, with many uncertainties and uncertainties. The Chinese economy continues to maintain steady and rapid development, and the long-term fundamentals have not changed. However, the problems of imbalance, uncoordinated and unsustainable development remain outstanding. We must grasp the overall tone of steady progress, maintain stable and rapid economic development, and basically stabilize the overall price level, and strive to make new breakthroughs in transforming the economic development mode, deepening reform and opening up, and ensuring the improvement of people's livelihood. Li Keqiang stressed that accelerating the transformation of economic development mode and promoting long-term stable and rapid economic development. The main direction is to adjust the economic structure. The strategic basis is to expand domestic demand. Urbanization is the greatest potential for expanding domestic demand. It is necessary to actively and steadily promote urbanization and promote the coordinated development of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization. China's economic development has reached a critical stage in transforming the way the economy develops. There is no time to delay. Li Keqiang pointed out that efforts should be made to transform the characteristics of China's large population into the advantages of human resources and abundant human resources. The promotion of economic growth is mainly due to the increase in the consumption of material resources, mainly relying on scientific and technological progress, the improvement of the quality of laborers, and management innovation. The cost of investing in research and development this year may be one trillion yuan. Li Keqiang said that development must be transferred, and the way to change lies in the innovation of institutional mechanisms. At present, China's reform has entered a crucial period. We must deepen reforms in fiscal, taxation, finance, enterprises, prices, and income distribution systems, strive to make breakthroughs in key areas and key links, give better play to the fundamental role of market allocation of resources, and remove barriers to institutional and institutional constraints that constrain economic and social development. The endogenous motivation of development. At the same time, China's expansion of domestic demand and restructuring is carried out under the conditions of opening up to the outside world. It is necessary to promote balanced development of import and export trade, innovative use of foreign capital and foreign investment, and provide a good environment for fair competition and common development of all types of enterprises. According to estimates, during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, China's total import and export volume may reach more than 10 trillion US dollars. In 2012, China’s foreign trade volume and overseas direct investment may also maintain double-digit growth, with total imports exceeding US$1.9 trillion. Investment pulls support for private capital into railway finance. Zhang Ping, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the China Development Forum that investment is still an important force for expanding domestic demand. In the future, private capital will be supported to enter railway, municipal, financial, energy, telecommunications, education, In various fields such as medical care, we have made new breakthroughs in deepening reform and opening up. Zhang Ping said that although the situation is severe and complicated, the opportunities still outweigh the challenges. The fundamentals of China's long-term development have not changed. We have confidence and conditions to maintain the long-term stable and rapid development of the national economy. Zhang Ping said that in the future, the strategic basis for expanding domestic demand will be firmly grasped, especially to increase consumer demand, increase the income of urban and rural residents, especially the people in the station, and let the people have money to spend; further improve the social security system and let the people dare to consume. Adopt policies and measures to encourage consumption of finance, taxation, finance, etc., so that ordinary people are willing to consume; improve the environment and conditions of consumption, and make the people more convenient to consume; strengthen the supervision of the market and let the people rest assured to consume. Investing in the past has been the main driving force behind the Chinese economy. Zhang Ping said that in the process of industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization, investment is still an important force to expand domestic demand. Zhang Ping said that in the future, the guiding role of government investment will be better combined with the enthusiasm of mobilizing private investment. Government investment should be further inclined to the people's livelihood or people's livelihood projects, increase support for affordable housing projects, agriculture, rural areas, independent innovation, social undertakings, relax market access, and implement more targeted and operational incentives. Support private capital to enter the railway, municipal, financial, energy, telecommunications, education, medical and other fields. The next step in fiscal and tax reform will increase the proportion of direct tax. Minister of Finance Xie Xuren said at the 2012 China Development High-Level Forum on the 18th that this year, according to the requirements of the 12th Five-Year Plan, the reform of the fiscal system and the reform and improvement of the budget management system will be improved. The reform of the taxation system will deepen the reform of China's fiscal and taxation system and better serve the overall situation of stable economic and social development. Xie Xuren pointed out that this year will continue to implement the new personal income tax law, reduce the income tax burden of individual residents and individual industrial and commercial households, and further promote the adjustment of income distribution. It is necessary to further implement the VAT and business tax thresholds, reduce the tax burden policy for small and micro enterprises, and continue to implement preferential policies for halving income tax this year for small and micro enterprises. Efforts to promote the development of the service industry, especially the modern service industry, reduce the tariffs on some imported goods, increase the import of energy resources products, advanced equipment and key components, and improve the preferential policies for urban land use tax occupied by bulk commodity storage facilities. The tax burden of logistics enterprises and agricultural products production and circulation links. It is necessary to further cancel some administrative fees related to enterprises. In addition, Xie Xuren said that in view of the current large proportion of tax revenue in China's circulation, the direct tax ratio corresponding to income tax is relatively small. The direction of the next tax system reform is to increase the proportion of direct tax. Xie Xuren stressed that this year will continue to promote the reform of business tax to VAT, further promote the development of the service industry, and at the same time rationalize the relevant system of turnover tax. Improve the consumption tax system, promote energy conservation and emission reduction, and guide rational consumption. Further promote resource tax reform, expand the scope of ad valorem taxation, and promote resource conservation and environmental protection. We will steadily promote the pilot reform of property tax and further study and formulate tax reform plans for property ownership and transaction. Foreign Trade China will become the world's largest importer Minister of Commerce Chen Deming said at the 2012 China Development High-Level Forum on the 18th that China, which accounts for more than 19% of the world's population, is now the world's second largest importer. In the next few years, China will become the world's largest importer and become the largest market in the world. He said that China not only provides the world with high-quality and affordable necessities, but China's own market is also filled with various famous brands, high-end consumer goods and even luxury goods. In recent years, the total retail sales of domestically produced goods in China has increased by 16% or even 18% per year, which is higher than the rate of economic growth. Chen Deming said that we often see Western politicians criticizing China for becoming the world's largest exporter despite the global balance, but they never mentioned that China is also the world's second largest importer. China is very small from the world's largest importer. He said that pursuing balanced growth is a common goal of all countries. He suggested that countries ensure the controllability of unbalanced growth. The countries concerned treat the rise of emerging countries with an open and inclusive attitude, and work together to open up markets and expand domestic consumption. Chen Deming said that once a country's unbalanced growth cannot be controlled beyond its limits, it will have a disastrous impact on countries, which in turn will increase the country's losses. He said that it is not advisable for some developed countries to engage in trade protectionism. It is not unfair to other countries, but also unfair to their citizens and enterprises. It will not have a good effect. In the reform of state-owned enterprises , the investment and splitting framework has been set up yesterday. Wang Jianxi, deputy general manager and chief risk officer of CIC, said in the China Development Forum that the framework for splitting CIC International and Huijin has basically been set up. CIC’s overseas investment It is done by CIC International and relevant ongoing financing mechanisms are under discussion. Yesterday, CIC General Manager Gao Xiqing said frankly at the development high-level forum, because CIC is a bit like a state-owned enterprise as a sovereign wealth fund, so some concerns about overseas investment are not completely linked to business, and counterparties will give more restrictions. Wang Jianxi said that because Huijin Holdings, a subsidiary of China Investment Corporation, has built four domestic banks, and these banks have branches in the United States, the United States regards CIC as the controlling shareholder of the Bank of America, so it often invests in the United States. Restricted and reviewed. However, he said that with the registration of CIC International in Hong Kong, the framework for splitting CIC International and Huijin has basically been set up. CIC's overseas investment is handled by CIC International. At the end of last year, CIC received a capital injection of US$30 billion from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. Wang Jianxi said recently that he hopes that there will be a clear financing mechanism for other more mature sovereign funds such as Singapore. Currently, it is discussing with the government departments to establish relevant financing mechanisms. However, he does not disclose information on continuing capital injections. Expert opinion Li Daokui: Estimated GDP growth of 8.5% this year CPI increase of 3% Professor Li Daokui of Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management said: "China has no big problems in short-term growth, inflation is not a big problem, this year I predict (CPI) 3 %, the final GDP growth rate is 8.5%, although the government proposed 7.5%, telling local governments not to over-expand, but my prediction is 8.5%." Li Daokui screams, if China blindly pursues short-term growth, then the future Growth will suffer, and the final victims are not only China but the world. However, he also stressed that real estate cannot be expected to adjust by 80% within one year, and the side effects will be very large. Be sure to adjust, but emphasize a process and make a soft landing. For foreign exchange reserves, Li Daokui believes that China's foreign exchange reserves are too much. If one or two trillion US dollars of reserves are appropriate, there is no need to have a reserve of 3.2 trillion US dollars. Ma Jiantang, director of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the current decline in economic growth is interpreted as leaving room for regulation. He believes that whether it is investment or consumption, industry, although the speed is somewhat down, but personal feelings, is still in a normal stable range, the second should be a result of the government's active regulation. Yu Yongding: Global Central Bank Printing Bank China is the most victimized at the "China Development High-Level Forum 2012" annual meeting, Yu Yongding, a member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and a researcher at the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that EU rescue may be a solution to the European debt crisis. The most effective way, but far from being able to hydrolyze thirst. At present, the long-term refinancing and refinancing launched by the European Central Bank is similar to the US monetary easing policy. China is the world's largest creditor country, and the monetary easing policy in Europe and the United States has made China the biggest victim. Yu Yongding believes that countries such as Europe and the United States cannot politically and economically adopt the determination, will, and ability to tighten their belts to invent and create debts. They want to "swell" their debts by printing money and using inflation. China, as the world's largest creditor, has become the biggest victim. He believes that the world is entering a new stage - the era of central bank printing. For China, many things cannot be regretted. Under this circumstance, China must speed up its adjustment, speed up economic adjustment, and transform its economic growth mode. Do not further fall into various traps. For Europe, we should help Europe, and we should regard it as an opportunity, but we must adopt a positive and prudent approach. China can provide direct and indirect help, but this kind of help should be done by weight. Guliya: Trade protectionism is escalating. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Secretary-General Angel Guglia said at the China Development Forum that trade protectionism is currently escalating, even though speeches and arguments are more than actual trade sanctions. More, but in the future it is possible to develop into a real trade protection and trade war. "Trade protectionism is escalating, although I have to say that there are more speeches and debates than real trade wars and trade sanctions. Many situations will escalate to trade protection, because many countries now face low growth, trade deficits, and high unemployment. And close to the general election, so the various speeches show a strong taste of trade protectionism." Guglia said. He stressed that the current gunpowder smell is greater than the real guns, but only the current situation, the future may soon develop into a real trade protection and trade war. When asked about the US, Japan and Europe to the WTO to sue China's rare earth export restrictions, Guria said that it is still too early to comment on the lawsuit. This is about the market and the export restrictions. Moreover, export disputes involving rare earths are also related to national development strategies. He said that before this lawsuit evolved into long-term negotiations and disputes, I hope that the United States, Europe and Japan can conduct good communication and consultation with China and reach some consensus, and the supply of rare earth can better meet the market demand. However, on the same day, in the speech of Chinese Minister of Commerce Chen Deming, it seems that it is not easy to negotiate. "The United States said that considering the security of the country, the control of military and civilian supplies has not been released yet, and there are probably more than 2,400 kinds of commodities. The United States is constantly telling us that we have to let go, we have to set a special Let go of it, I have listened to this for three years. In the past, I only saw the stairs ringing. I didn’t see anyone coming down. Recently, the stairs didn’t ring, so I still hope to discuss this issue.” Chen Deming pointed out. He used rare earth as an example to ask: "I hope that the United States can release its exports to China. A large number of commodities should not be restricted to export to China for security reasons. I sold the rare earths in the goods to you. You put my rare earth. Saying that you can't export to me is not good for your safety. Is it good for my safety?” Lagarde: Welcome interest rate and other tools to replace quantitative easing. International Monetary Fund President Christine Lagarde on the 18th in China Development Forum The 2012 meeting said that China’s role in the development of the world economy is even more important given that the current global economic development prospects are still very fragile. China should continue to play an important role in global policy discussions and continue to work to accelerate the transformation of its own economy. Lagarde said that the financial system of the developed economies in the world is currently very fragile, and public and private sector debt remains high; rising oil prices jeopardize global growth. She believes that the global economic indicators are now slightly better, but still in a dangerous area. The US economy is better than it was six months ago. Developed economies and other economies, including China, need to carry out many reforms. “In fact, without China’s impetus for economic growth and stability, the global economic situation may be even worse,” she said. She said at a press conference yesterday that more and more tools have been applied to monetary policy in the near future. This will be a trend, and more widely used tools such as interest rates will replace quantitative easing monetary policy. The IMF welcomes this approach. She said that in both developed and emerging markets, all economies are closely linked, and the European debt problem directly affects China's economy and trade with Europe. The IMF is working to solve the European problem because it is not only a problem in Europe but a world. The depth of the news risks can not be ignored. It is imperative to adjust the structure. Under the background of the continuous deepening of the European sovereign debt crisis, the slowdown of the world economic growth and the increase of domestic economic uncertainty, what kind of trend will the Chinese economy show? What are the risks and challenges that will be faced? What measures will the relevant departments take to respond effectively? At the "China Development High-Level Forum 2012" annual meeting hosted by the Development Research Center of the State Council, well-known economists and government officials from home and abroad took the pulse of the Chinese economy to find the direction of China's sustainable development. China's economy will not "hard landing" "Affected by factors such as changes in the international economic environment and the country's active regulation and control, the Chinese economy has shown signs of slowing down since last year, but it is still in a normal and stable range." National Bureau of Statistics Ma Jiantang, the director, believes that urbanization, industrialization, marketization and internationalization are the basic factors for the long-term stable and rapid development of the Chinese economy. These factors have not fundamentally changed. At the same time, China still has a lot of room for improvement in the process of urbanization, industrialization, marketization and internationalization. Steven Roach, a professor at Yale University and a non-executive chairman of Morgan Stanley (Asia), believes that despite the many risks in the Chinese economy, there is no “hard landing” that people worry about because of the proper response. The risks faced cannot be ignored. “In the past year, the Chinese economy has achieved gratifying results in terms of steady growth, price control, and structural adjustment, but it still faces the dual challenge of falling economic growth potential and excessive price pressure. At the same time, in the economy. There are still some potential risks that cannot be ignored in the financial sector. Li Wei, director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, pointed out. "Although the basic factors that have driven China's rapid development in the past few decades have not changed significantly, some advantages that support China's rapid economic development are weakening." Ma Jiantang believes that the labor resources advantage is weakening, while the constraints from the resource environment are increasingly Prominently, the constraints faced by China's rapid economic growth have gradually increased. Structural adjustment into an urgent task "When the constraints faced by China's rapid economic growth continue to increase, we have only one way out, that is, to further increase the mode of transfer and structural adjustment, and promote the steady and rapid development of China's economy." Ma Jiantang pointed out . Ma Jiantang’s point of view was recognized by Li Wei. "In the short term, the economic recovery is of course very important, but if the deep-seated structural contradictions are not resolved, the foundation of economic recovery cannot be stabilized, and the momentum of recovery cannot be long-lasting." In Li Wei’s view, it began in 2008. The reason why the impact of the international financial crisis of the year is so intense and long-lasting is that the long-term structural imbalance of the world economy, the task of current economic restructuring is arduous and urgent for China and the world. Zhang Pingyan, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, has become an urgent task for the current and future period. Liu He, deputy director of the Central Financial and Economic Leading Group Office, pointed out that by promoting urbanization to achieve domestic demand and promotion fees, this will be the main feature of future economic development. “The increase of urban population, the emergence of middle-income class and rising consumer demand will play an important role in stimulating China's economic growth and will also have an important impact on the transformation of China's economic structure.” Deepening reform should have new breakthroughs. "In recent years, China's economic development mode transformation and industrial upgrading have achieved certain results, but the investment is too high, the cost is too high, and the system that is conducive to innovation and entrepreneurship has never been established. The reason for this is the economic system obstacles. Not eliminated, it is not enough strength for reform.” Economist Wu Jinglian pointed out. Qian Yingyi, an economist who recently served as a member of the monetary policy committee of the central bank, also pointed out that the slow progress of structural adjustment requires deep-level reforms, and the relationship between the government and residents, enterprises, and the market must be adjusted. In the view of Liu Zunyi, chairman of CIC International (Hong Kong) Co., Ltd., if the Chinese economy is to achieve sustainable development, it must promote reforms in the areas of taxation system and capital account convertibility. "We must make new breakthroughs in deepening reform and opening up." Zhang Ping pointed out that in the future, efforts will be made to promote reforms in key areas and key links, especially in reforming resource product prices, income distribution systems, and fiscal and taxation systems. . "Continue unswervingly push forward the reform of the fiscal and taxation system, further improve the public finance system, and vigorously support the promotion of reforms in the areas of price and finance," said Minister of Finance Xie Xuren.

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