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The inflation situation in the second quarter remained grim, and the central bank once again tightened the credit gate. Some institutions predict that the scale of new loans in June will be about 550 billion yuan. Based on this calculation, the scale of new loans in the first half of the year will be controlled at about 4 trillion yuan, which is slightly behind the credit rhythm arrangement set by the central bank at the beginning of the year. Market analysts predict that the annual credit scale will be less than 7.5 trillion yuan according to the pace of credit booking scheduled at the beginning of the year. With the full construction of affordable housing in the second half of the year, the demand for credit funds will become very strong, and credit resources will become more tight. However, people familiar with the matter said that the tone of monetary policy in the second half of the year will be to maintain the relative tightening of overall liquidity regulation, but to promote policy orientation easing in areas such as SME financing, local government financing platform capital chain, and automobile industry. New loans in June or 550 billion in the second quarter, the growth rate of new loans has slowed down. Due to the implementation of the average daily deposit-to-deposit ratio in June and the pressure of regulatory assessment at the end of the season, the market generally expects the new loan quota in June to be 5,500. About 100 million yuan, basically the same as in May. Analysts said that the new loan in the first half of the year was estimated to be about 4 trillion yuan. According to the credit target and rhythm determined by the regulator at the beginning of the year, the new loans in the first half of the year were slightly lower than expected. Credit size management under the guidance of the regulator window has become the primary factor in curbing credit growth. In the first three months, the scale of new RMB loans of banking financial institutions was 1.04 trillion yuan, 0.54 trillion yuan and 0.68 trillion yuan respectively. The total new loans in the first quarter were controlled at 2.26 trillion yuan, basically determined by the regulatory authorities at the beginning of the year. The 30% delivery schedule in the first quarter coincides. Due to the over-regulation of real estate regulation and the severe inflation situation in the second quarter, the regulators appropriately adjusted the scale of new loans in the second quarter, and the overall loan size in the quarter dropped by about 10%. This resulted in the overall goal of new loans in the first half of the year. 4 trillion yuan. The Bank of Communications Financial Research Center previously released a report saying that in the future, credit management will continue to be stricter, the reserve ratio will continue to increase, the differential reserve ratio will be dynamically adjusted, and the deposit-to-deposit ratio will be implemented. The future credit growth will continue to be stable. Control the operating situation. The report predicts that in order to meet the end-of-season loan-to-deposit ratio assessment, banks will generally increase the absorption of deposits at the end of the quarter, and wealth management products will also expire at the end of the quarter, which will lead to a substantial increase in deposits. It is expected that the growth rate of M2 will rebound in June. About 15.5%. New year-on-year loans or less than 7.5 trillion analysts said that according to the credit rate of the central bank’s previously announced credit, the size of new loans this year will be controlled at 7-7.5 trillion yuan, which is regarded as the whole year. New loan target. It is understood that the regulators have increased their flexibility in determining the target of new loans this year. According to the target value of 7 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, the target will be tightened according to the economic and inflation decline. 7.5 trillion yuan level. An industry insider told China Securities Journal that various commercial banks have determined the loan quotas of various banks according to the new loan target. For example, ICBC’s new loans this year are between 810 billion yuan and 880 billion yuan, and according to the current situation. Commercial banks have basically controlled the size of new loans each month in accordance with the central bank's credit supply requirements. Analysts said that if the scale of new loans in the first half of the year is controlled at 4 trillion yuan, according to the quarterly credit arrangement of 3:3:2:2, the scale of new loans this year is only about 6.67 trillion yuan. "According to the credit arrangements previously set by the central bank, the scale of new loans this year will be less than 7.5 trillion yuan, falling below 7 trillion yuan will be a high probability event; but the speed of social housing starts, the credit support for small and medium-sized enterprises and local Subsequent loans to the financing platform are still an important factor in the future credit arrangements," said a brokerage analyst. In fact, from the perspective of the construction of affordable housing proposed by the 12th Five-Year Plan, the current funding gap and the start-up process are worrying. In the plan, the number of affordable housing projects planned for this year will reach 10 million sets, and the required funds will be 1.3 trillion yuan to 1.4 trillion yuan. Governments at all levels will only bear more than 500 billion yuan, and more than 800 billion yuan will be raised through society. "Bank credit will play a key role in supporting the construction of affordable housing. Therefore, it is not excluded that the central bank will concentrate the credit scale compressed in the second quarter to support the construction of affordable housing," the source said. In addition, the risk exposure of local financing platforms is also a problem that deserves high attention. Although the regulators have clearly stated on different occasions, local financing platform loans cannot be renewed and borrowed, but if large-scale risks are exposed and the project has a bad end. Risks, these may force credit from commercial banks. SME loans may also increase the bank's credit scale. In particular, according to the regulatory requirements, small business loans will not be included in the deposit-to-deposit ratio of commercial banks, which will stimulate bank credit to small businesses from a business sustainability perspective, but the data show that small business loans only account for all loans. 7%, so credit support for SMEs will not have a significant impact on changes in new loans throughout the year. Monetary policy is expected to be fine-tuned. In the current situation of the deterioration of the funds of SMEs and the decline of economic growth, the monetary policy that continues to tighten in the later period will gradually slow down in frequency or intensity. CICC’s report released recently also believes that inflation will peak in the second half of the year, but the rate of CPI decline may be very slow, economic growth will be low, but the risk of a hard landing is not large, in this case, the currency It is unlikely that the policy will shift from austerity to easing, but it is expected to gradually shift towards directional easing and even neutrality. A number of institutional analysts believe that inflationary pressures will not weaken in the third quarter, and monetary policy will not show a clear turn in the third quarter. However, the regulators will adjust the selection and use of monetary policy tools. The frequency of deposit reserve ratios is reduced, and price-based instruments play a relatively important role. The fine-tuning of monetary policy in the second half of the year seems to have become a consensus in all aspects. Vice Premier Wang Qishan mentioned the strengthening of financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises, including the acceleration of financial system reforms such as the legalization of private credit, so that the problem of the shortage of money for small and medium-sized enterprises can be solved. Analysts pointed out that "there is a guarantee and pressure to optimize the credit structure" is mentioned in the work report over the years, but the primary performance in the second half of this year, the SME credit line may not be as tense as the first half. It is reported that recently, the relevant departments put forward a new monetary policy at the economists' symposium organized by their organizations: in the context of capital inflows, foreign exchange holdings, and inflationary pressures, the relative tightening of overall liquidity regulation is maintained. However, in areas such as SME financing, local government financing platform capital chain, and automobile industry, the policy orientation is relaxed. It is also called "relative tightening, directional looseness."