Coastal coal capacity looms long and long-term freight rate is far lower in 2011

The negotiation of the long-term coastal coal-long coal price negotiation contract that began from the end of 2011 has finally reached the end of the marathon.

On the 14th, we learned from a number of shipping companies that the long-term coastal coal long-distance freight contract, which has been negotiated for several months, has finally come to a close. The annual pricing between shipping companies and power plants is expected to be slightly lower than in 2011. While the cost of fuel continues to rise year-on-year, the decline in annual prices will still test the profitability of airlines. Many small and medium-sized coastal shipping companies have started to idle or even shut down.

The freight rate is lower than the end of each year of 2011 or the beginning of the second year. For example, the bulk cargo transportation companies like China Shipping Development and Ningbo Ocean Shipping will negotiate with the long-term power plant and steel plant customers for the next year's long-term freight contract. Both parties negotiate a one-year contract. Quantity and price, the contract generally starts from January 1.

However, generally, the supply and demand sides will negotiate the price for one year in March and April of the new year. Before the prices are negotiated, they will be based on 70% or 80% of the previous year's price.

A senior official of China Shipping Development Co., Ltd told the reporter yesterday that the long negotiation agreement between the company and the customers such as the power plant has been basically negotiated. The meeting of the board of directors will be finalized today, so it is inconvenient to disclose the final pricing situation.

However, the internal management of another large coastal coal transportation company revealed to reporters that according to what the industry learned, the annual contract that China Shipping Development and customers negotiated is slightly lower than last year, but slightly higher than the current spot market price. Last year, the long coal freight rate from Shanghai to Qinhuangdao was around RMB 50/t, which is expected to be around RMB 47/t this year. Due to the role of China Shipping Development in the coastal coal transportation sector, other companies are expected to follow up and down according to the pricing of China Shipping.

According to report, in 2011, coastal coal transportation prices signed by long-term contracts between shipping companies and power plants were generally between 48 and 50 yuan per ton. It was precisely due to the support of the long-term contract price that some large and medium-sized coastal dry bulk carriers were now It is only free from losses.

The above-mentioned management revealed that some large bulk shipping companies can still make profits this year at a price of around 47 yuan/ton, but it also depends on whether the cost of oil prices will continue to rise. “The current price of oil is higher than last year. Nearly a thousand yuan/ton."

A high level of Ningbo Shipping pointed out to our reporter yesterday that the pricing of the company’s negotiation with a customer has basically settled. The price is slightly lower than last year, but it is a quarterly pricing. “Since the environmental changes in various areas are too fast, there has been no Small customers shift from annual pricing to quarterly pricing."

There is still excess capacity, and for many small and medium-sized transport companies in the coastal bulk shipping market, they have no strength to reach an annual long-term co-contract with customers, and they can only transport goods on a one-for-one spot basis.

From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the freight rate of coal spot market from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai was only around RMB 30/t, and the freight rate of this route had reached RMB 55/t at the peak of last year. Therefore, many small and medium-sized transportations carried on the spot market Businesses simply cannot make money.

However, as businesses resumed after the Spring Festival, the rise in electricity demand led to a rise in coal demand, the enthusiasm of power plants to purchase domestic coal also began to increase, making Qinhuangdao anchor loading coal carriers gradually increase, and promoting coastal coal freight rates began to rebound.

Checking the latest spot prices on the 14th found that the coal freight rate from Qinhuangdao to Shanghai has rebounded strongly from RMB 28.5/tonne at the end of last month to more than RMB 40/tonne, which has given China Shipping Development and other large bulk shipping companies a relatively high The long agreement price brought certain "chips."

Chen Yun, a shipping expert, even pointed out to reporters that due to the current low coal and freight rates, plus the possibility of ushering in the Daqin Line overhaul at the end of March, it is a good time for the power plant to enter the coal-replenishing warehouse. It is expected that coal will be available in March. Demand will continue to rise.

“The current rising trend of coastal coal freight rates also makes customers willing to set an annual contract with us as soon as possible.” An insider of a coastal coal transportation company told the reporter, however, there are currently thousands of shipping companies engaged in coal and other transportation along the coast. , And this year there are still new capacity to be delivered one after another. Whether the rising demand for coal can keep up with the increase in capacity will be a major factor in the future.

According to the above sources, there have been a number of boat owners blindly buying ships entering the industry. Operation difficulties have arisen such as capital chain breaks, and they have begun to sell or close down in succession. In recent months, the company has been working with shipbuilders. We hope to delay the delivery of new ships to be delivered this year. However, as a whole, there are still many ships on the market.