Coal industry bid farewell to the golden decade will enter a stable development period

Coal is the food of industry and the basis for the development of the national economy. This is especially true for countries like China that are rich in coal, lack of oil, and less gas. In addition, China is currently in an important stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Fixed asset investment continues to maintain a rapid growth momentum, and economic development is highly dependent on energy. Therefore, the sustained and rapid development of the national economy has driven the continuous and rapid growth of coal demand.

From 2002 to 2011, it was China's first 10 years of accession to the WTO and also 10 years of rapid development of China's national economy. In the past 10 years, the annual growth rate of China's GDP has been more than 9%. Among them, the GDP growth rate in 2003-2007 and 2010 has reached over 10% (including 10%), and the 10-year GDP compound average growth rate is 10.6%. Driven by the rapid economic growth, China’s total energy consumption increased from 150.406 million tons of standard coal in 2001 to 3.38 million tons of standard coal in 2011, with an average annual growth rate of 8.8%, of which the apparent consumption of coal was The 138.36 million tons were increased to 372.88 million tons in 2011, with an average annual growth rate of 10.4%.

Under the condition of continuous and rapid growth in coal demand, the upward trend in the price of coal in the past 10 years is very obvious. Taking the Qinhuangdao Port 5500 kcal thermal coal closing price as an example, in December 2011, the average price was 820 yuan/ton, which was more than double the average price in 2001. Converted from the average annual price, from 2001 to 2011, the average annual growth rate of the thermal coal closing price of 5,500 kcal coal in Qinhuangdao Port was 11.8%, while the average annual increase in consumer prices and ex-factory prices of industrial products was only 2.6% and 2.9% respectively. .

The achievements of the coal industry in gold for 10 years are well reflected in the main economic indicators. In the 10 years, the total assets, net assets, product sales revenue, per capita sales revenue, and total profit of the coal industry increased from 417.16 billion yuan, 146.75 billion yuan, 148.57 billion yuan, 39,000 yuan, and 4.17 billion yuan in 2001 to 2011, respectively. In the year, it stood at 357.74 billion yuan, 1,544.44 billion yuan, 3,259.39 billion yuan, 614,000 yuan, and 434.17 billion yuan, which were 8.0 times, 9.5 times, 20.9 times, 14.6 times, and 103.0 times respectively.

Since the fourth quarter of 2011, coal demand growth has shown signs of slowing, and coal prices have entered the callback channel again. This callback process continued until March 2012. Obviously, since the second half of 2011, the overall slowdown in economic growth at home and abroad has been the direct cause of this round of coal price corrections. However, this round of coal market adjustment should not be regarded as a simple stage correction. It is necessary for us to explore and analyze the deep-seated reasons behind this round of coal market corrections, that is, the underlying causes of slowing economic growth.

Coincidentally, on March 5, Premier Wen Jiabao stated in his government work report at the Fifth National Meeting of the 11th National Party Committee that the 2012 GDP growth target is 7.5%, which is the first time in eight years that China’s GDP is expected to increase. Less than 8%. Is there a necessary link between the downward growth forecast and the slowdown in economic growth since the second half of last year? Why do you take the initiative to cut your GDP growth forecast after 10 years of rapid growth? Is the goal of economic growth a temporary short-term or long-term goal?

The author believes that downgrading the 2012 growth target is the inevitable result of a gradual slowdown in economic growth since the second half of 2011. The reason for this downward adjustment of growth targets is, on the one hand, because of the increasing pressure on continued rapid economic growth, and the relative increase in resources, environment and social costs; on the other hand, it also reflects the government’s determination to adjust the economic structure. The determination to change the mode of economic development. The downward adjustment of the economic growth target should not be a simple short-term behavior, and the economic growth rate of China in the next few years may all be moderated.

If economic growth slows down in the next few years, coal demand growth will inevitably slow down. However, we should have a sober and rational understanding of the slowdown in growth. A slowdown does not mean that the coal industry is about to enter a downward cycle. The author believes that the coal industry will enter a relatively stable development period in the next few years. The main reasons are as follows:

First of all, coal demand will still maintain a certain degree of growth. This is due to a combination of factors: First, China is currently at an important stage of rapid industrialization and urbanization. There is a large gap between the eastern, central and western regions. The two processes are far from over. It is expected that infrastructure construction will take a long time to come. Investment in fixed assets will also maintain an appropriate scale. Second, coal will dominate China's primary energy. For a long time to come, coal will be the basis for protecting China's energy supply. As long as the total energy consumption grows, coal consumption will continue to increase. Growth; Third, the relative lack of oil and gas resources in China determines the future development of coal chemical industry is huge. During the “11th Five-Year Plan” period, coal chemical technology has made significant progress. With petroleum security issues becoming increasingly prominent, the development of new coal chemical industry will continue to be vigorously promoted in the future. It is reasonable.

Second, reasonable control over the total supply of coal has become the consensus of industry managers. In recent years, with the rapid development of the coal industry, industry managers have become increasingly aware of the continuing problems in the development of the coal industry. Therefore, “coal mining cannot continue unrestricted growth”, “coal production should set ceilings,” “ Strengthen the control of the total supply of coal," and other voices appeared from time to time. The reasonable control of the total amount of coal has become the consensus of industry managers. Affected by this, coal-producing provinces and autonomous regions such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi and Shaanxi have invariably reduced the coal production growth target in the next few years. Controlling the total supply of coal, the reduction of coal production targets in the main producing areas will help stabilize market expectations, thus supporting the industry to maintain a stable operation.

Third, the industry's concentration has increased significantly, and the control of large-scale enterprise markets has continued to increase. In 2011, China's 100 million tons of coal enterprise groups have reached 7 and 50 million tons of coal enterprise groups have exceeded 10, and small coal mines in major producing areas such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi have basically exited the market. At the same time, in 2011, the coal output of China's large-scale coal enterprises reached 2.18 billion tons, accounting for 61.9% of the total coal production. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the construction of large bases, large groups, and large coal mines will continue to advance, industry concentration will continue to increase, market control of large-scale coal enterprise groups will continue to increase, and the degree of concentration and market control will increase. Undoubtedly, it will help ensure the stable development of the industry and promote the smooth operation of the market.