China's re-opening of the US polysilicon market is difficult to cure

The Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China issued a preliminary ruling on the 16th. Since September 20th, the temporary anti-subsidy measures in the form of margins have been adopted for solar-grade polysilicon imported into the United States. This is the first time the anti-dumping preliminary ruling has been made by the Ministry of Commerce. Penalty".

For the US polysilicon "double anti-" officially entered into force

On September 16, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice, the preliminary decision to implement temporary countervailing measures for imported solar-grade polysilicon (USA).

According to the announcement, after investigation, imported solar grade polysilicon originated in the United States has subsidies, China's domestic polysilicon industry has suffered substantial damage, and there is a causal relationship between subsidies and substantial damage. According to the relevant provisions of the "Anti-Subsidy Regulations of the People's Republic of China", the State Council's Customs Tariff Commission decided, as of September 20, 2013, to implement temporary anti-subsidy in the form of margin for imported solar-grade polysilicon originating in the United States. Measures to impose a 6.5% temporary countervailing duty deposit on companies such as Hemlock and AE. When importing the above-mentioned products, the importer shall provide the corresponding customs deposit to the Chinese Customs according to the ad valorem subsidy rate determined by the preliminary ruling.

Prior to this, China had imposed a temporary anti-dumping duty ranging from 53.3% to 57% on July 24th for the US polysilicon preliminary ruling. So far, China’s “double-reverse” sanctions against US polysilicon have officially entered into force.

It is worth noting that the United States made a "double-reverse" final cut on China's crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells and components a year ago, levying anti-dumping duties ranging from 18.32% to 249.96% for Chinese related production and export companies, and In contrast, the counter-subsidy tariffs ranged from 14.78% to 15.79%. In contrast, the US “double-reverse” stick is much heavier.

Insiders analyzed that this move is a bailout behavior jointly initiated by the Chinese government and enterprises, hoping to boost market morale; on the other hand, it is also a wake-up call for a large number of US and Korean companies exporting polysilicon to China.

China's import market pattern is difficult to change

This time, China’s “moving knife” against the United States, combined with the additive effect of anti-dumping, will affect the export of US polysilicon enterprises to China.

According to data from the China Investment Consulting Industry Research Center, since the implementation of anti-dumping measures against polysilicon in the United States in July, the US market share in China has fallen by 7%, behind South Korea and Germany. After anti-subsidy measures are expected, market share will be renewed. Reduced, the overall decline of up to 10%.

The “double-reverse” tax levy will increase the price of US polysilicon products in the Chinese market, which is good news for domestic similar enterprises. Zhu Weihua of the Guangdong Photovoltaic Industry Alliance said that the double-reverse weakens the price advantage of American products, leaving domestic companies with a strong competitor and the opportunity to occupy more markets, while also helping the demand for polysilicon to gradually shift to the domestic market.

The price increase of US products has limited impact on downstream companies in the demand side of polysilicon. Yao Wenjie, technical director of Dongguan CSG Photovoltaic Technology Co., Ltd. said that after the double-reverse, silicon materials will rise, but we can choose other countries' silicon materials, and we can also buy our own domestic products, so we will not affect our production costs.

However, although the US will issue a separate ticket, the pattern of China's imports of polysilicon from Korea, Germany and the United States will remain difficult to change. Ren Haoning, a researcher in the energy industry of China Investment Consulting, analyzed that the US share has decreased, but its lost market share will be fully accepted by Hande. The fundamental pattern of China's polysilicon import market will not change. Although it had imposed a 2.4% anti-dumping duty on South Korea, its impact was almost negligible. In July this year, the amount of polysilicon imported from South Korea increased by 126.4%.

Develop giant enterprises to promote industry integration

In fact, the United States and the United States can not solve the problem of China's polysilicon imports. Zheng Lepeng, executive vice president of the Guangdong Solar Energy Association, and other experts said that South Korea’s OCI Co., Ltd. and Germany’s Wacker (Wacker) are the biggest “eyes” of domestic companies, and 70% of their production is sold to China. “Sacrifice” more directly “helps” them to gain a foothold. From the external environment, they need to be alert to the threat they pose.

The domestic PV industry has experienced a cold winter in the past, and now it is also welcoming recovery opportunities, and the domestic demand market is expected to reverse. Hongyuan Securities (market stocks trading point) research report believes that in the short term due to the impact of polysilicon "double reverse", the price of upstream polysilicon material has risen, it is expected that in the fourth quarter, China will introduce policy rules to support the photovoltaic industry, then the domestic PV market demand will The outbreak is conservative and will be doubled compared to the first half.

Market expansion will help boost business confidence, but in the case of polysilicon industry, the government needs to guide the market. “The country has introduced a number of incentive policies, but its operability is not strong. If necessary, it is necessary to adopt some policies that are aggressive and slightly radical.” Ren Haoning said that on the one hand, the European and American industries are highly concentrated, and the number of enterprises is small. Great experience and characteristics, support the development of giant enterprises, with enterprise groups as the core, encourage small and medium-sized enterprises to automatically move closer, transfer their production capacity, personnel, equipment, etc. at negotiated prices, accelerate industry mergers and acquisitions, and finally eliminate 90% of polysilicon enterprises. The next 10% of high-quality business giants.