Anthracite coal supply and demand situation analysis and 2012 forecast

Review: In 2011, there was a basic balance between supply and demand for smokeless thermal coal, injected coal, and sintered coal. The balance between supply and demand for anthracite lump was basically balanced, and it was slightly tight. Anthracite prices fluctuate overall, with lump coal gaining significantly.

Forecast: The demand for coal injected and sintered coal in 2012 is relatively weak, demand for lump coal is relatively strong, and demand for smokeless thermal coal will increase slightly. The effective supply of anthracite will grow relatively rapidly. Among them, the demand for anthracite lump is relatively strong and the output growth is relatively flat. Supply and demand are expected to maintain a basic balance; the supply of coal injected and sintered coal is generally loose; the smoke-free steam coal is generally balanced and slightly loosened. If the country promptly introduces and implements a strong financial investment policy, the market for anthracite and anthracite thermal coal for metallurgy will be better than expected.

The first part of the 2011 anthracite supply and demand situation (a) consumption growth, slightly increase the speed 2011 coal chemical industry, metallurgical and other industries that consume anthracite, the rapid development of gas, jet, sintering and other anthracite usage will also be maintained Faster growth.

(II) Steady growth in production and slower growth In 2011, the domestic coal mine production capacity continued to grow. Under the influence of factors such as slower demand growth, coal resource integration and safety, the national anthracite coal production maintained steady growth in 2011, but the growth rate slowed down. . The preliminary estimate of national anthracite coal production in 2011 was about 539 million tons, an increase of 8.6% over the same period of last year, an increase of 7.8 percentage points from 2010.

(III) Imports fluctuated at a high level, and the export was operating at a low level In 2011, the export volume of anthracite continued to be low and the import volume fluctuated at a high level. In the whole year of 2011, 36.106 million tons of imported anthracite coal were imported, a year-on-year increase of 37.29%; and anthracite coal exports amounted to 4.208 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.1%.

(4) The basic balance between supply and demand, and the performance of sub-categories vary. The supply and demand in the smoke-free thermal coal market is basically balanced. The overall balance between injected coal and sintered coal is basically balanced, and the supply is slightly loose in the second half of the year. The supply of anthracite lump coal was slightly tight, and it developed in the loose direction at a later stage.

(V) The market price has steadily risen, and the trend has stabilized recently. Since the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan”, the price of anthracite has steadily increased. Among them, the growth of smoke-free thermal coal has been stable, and the price of anthracite-free coal has increased significantly. In 2011, supply and demand were basically balanced, and the price of anthracite fluctuated. Since 2012, the prices of smoke-free thermal coal, coal injected, and anthracite lump have experienced minor fluctuations.

Part II 2012 Anthracite Demand Forecast In 2012, as China's macroeconomic growth slowed down, the increase in demand for anthracite coal will decline. Due to the wide range of uses of anthracite products, market demand will vary due to different types and uses.

(I) Relatively rapid increase in demand for lump for gas production Lump coal for gas production is mainly used for the production of nitrogen fertilizers, and it is also used for gas generators in the new coal chemical industry and building materials industries.

From the perspective of incremental demand for chemical products, China's economy will maintain steady and rapid development in 2012, but the growth rate will fall. From the perspective of the nitrogen fertilizer industry that consumes the most lump gas for gas production, as China's crop acreage is expanded and total production increases, the demand for fertilizer will also show a growth trend. However, with the large-scale promotion of soil testing and fertilizer application, the growth rate of nitrogen fertilizer demand will increase. Constrained. At present, China's nitrogen fertilizer consumption has been at a relatively high level, and it is expected that the demand for nitrogen fertilizer will show a downward trend in the eastern coastal areas, and there is still room for growth in other regions. It is expected that the national demand for nitrogen fertilizer will maintain a slow growth. As a whole, the demand for chemical products will maintain a growth trend in 2012, and the growth rate will fall.

From the structural demand for alternative petrochemical products, due to the unstable political situation in the Middle East, it is expected that international oil and natural gas prices will fluctuate at high levels, and the structural demand for lump coal for gas production is expected to increase substantially. From the perspective of the main products, domestic methanol is dominated by coal-to-methanol, while foreign countries are mostly using oil and natural gas as raw materials, and methanol imports are larger. In recent months, imports have been declining. Under the background of high oil prices, this momentum is expected to increase. Continuation will continue, coupled with the domestic promotion of methanol alternatives to gasoline, methanol production is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth.

In summary, it is expected that the demand for anthracite for nitrogen fertilizers will increase slightly in 2012, and the demand for methanol and other coal chemical products will increase rapidly, and the growth rate will fall slightly from the previous year. Compared with metallurgical anthracite and smokeless thermal coal, the demand for lump coal for gas production is growing at a relatively fast rate, and is expected to increase by 7% to 10%, which is a drop from the previous year.

(II) Demand for Anthracite for Metallurgical Industry Will Stabilize or Decline Smallly Anthracite used in metallurgy includes sintered coal and injected coal, and is mainly used for steel production. In 2012, due to the impact of the national real estate policy, it is expected that there will be no significant increase in real estate development investment, and even a period of contraction will occur. As China's economic growth slows, economic restructuring and energy-saving emission reduction efforts increase, China's raw material heavy industry investment growth will also slow down. The above two aspects are important factors that affect the growth of steel demand. Therefore, the growth of steel production and demand in China will slow down significantly in 2012, and steel output may decline. It is expected that the amount of anthracite consumed in the metallurgical industry will stabilize or decline slightly in 2012.

(III) Demand growth rate of smokeless thermal coal will obviously fall. Smokeless thermal coal is mainly used for thermal power generation, and a small part is used for cement production and residential life. According to CEC's forecast, China's electricity growth rate will slow down in 2012. The author estimates that in 2012, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the whole society may be between 6% and 8%. It is expected that the demand for smoke-free thermal coal in the power industry will increase steadily, and the year-on-year increase will drop significantly.

In 2012, the development of the western region will help support cement demand, but the decline in the growth rate of real estate development and the substantial growth in infrastructure construction will slow down the growth in cement demand. It is expected that the demand for smokeless thermal coal in the cement industry will decline slightly. .

With the rapid development of centralized heat supply in large and medium-sized cities, the direct consumption of coal by residents has decreased, and the use of anthracite in rural areas has maintained a slight increase. It has been determined that the amount of anthracite for civilian use has remained basically stable.

Through the analysis and judgment of the power industry, building materials industry and domestic coal consumption, it is expected that the demand for smokeless thermal coal is expected to grow slightly.

Based on the above analysis of the anthracite demand for various purposes, it is expected that the total anthracite coal demand will maintain a slight increase in 2012.

The third part of the anthracite coal supply situation in 2012 forecasting the reserves of anthracite coal accounts for about 13% of the country's total reserves of coal resources, mainly in Shanxi, Guizhou, Henan, Hunan and other provinces. In order to ensure long-term stable supply and promote clean and efficient use of energy, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China will carry out protective development of anthracite and other rare coal species.

Among the major anthracite-providing provinces, coal resource integration in Shanxi Province is now at a harvest time. In 2012, the growth of anthracite coal production capacity is expected to accelerate. In 2012, output of anthracite coal producing areas such as Henan and Guizhou is expected to achieve recovery growth. At present, the merger and reorganization of Hunan coal mining enterprises is progressing steadily. It is expected that Hunan’s anthracite coal production capacity will remain relatively stable in 2012. In a comprehensive view, most of the anthracite coal production areas in 2012 will have a recovery growth, judging that the national anthracite coal production capacity is in a relatively quick release process, and the growth rate of anthracite coal production is expected to exceed the growth rate of demand. However, with the improvement of mechanization after the integration of coal resources, the production rate of anthracite coal in China will show a downward trend. It is judged that the growth rate of lump coal production for China's gas production in 2012 will be lower than that of anthracite coal production, and the demand growth will remain basically in sync.

To sum up, it is expected that the growth of anthracite coal demand will slow down in 2012, among which the coal used for coal injection and sintering will be relatively weak, the demand for lump coal will be relatively strong, the demand for smokeless thermal coal will increase slightly, and the effective supply of anthracite coal will grow relatively quickly. Among them, demand for smoke-free lump coal is relatively strong, output growth is relatively flat, supply and demand are expected to maintain a basic balance; supply of injected coal and sintered coal is generally loose; and smoke-free steam coal is generally balanced and slightly loosened. If the country promptly introduces and implements a strong financial investment policy, the market for anthracite and anthracite thermal coal for metallurgy will be better than expected.