Abstract Foreword: The global PV market is “decentralized” and Wang Bohua believes that “there is no pessimism about the global market”. According to the statistics of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, although India is the country with the largest export volume of photovoltaic cells and components in China, China's major PV export market is also accelerating to Australia...

Foreword: The global PV market is “decentralized” and Wang Bohua believes that “there is no pessimism about the global market”. According to statistics from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, although India is the country with the largest export volume of photovoltaic cells and modules in China, China's major PV export markets are also accelerating the transfer to emerging markets such as Australia, Mexico, Pakistan and Brazil. For example, in the near future, Trina Solar has just entered into cooperation with Vietnam's largest private PV project, which will supply 258MW of PERC single-crystal double-glass components.

On July 30, local time, the Indian Ministry of Finance and Taxation officially announced that, according to the final recommendation of the General Administration of Trade and Relief of India, the solar battery (whether packaged as a component or not) will be subject to a 25% guarantee tariff for two years. The tax rate for the year (to the end of July 2019) is 25%, the tax rate for the first half of the second year is reduced to 20%, and the second half is reduced to 15%.

In addition, if there is a subsequent anti-dumping duty, the corresponding tariff will be levied after the deduction of the anti-dumping duty.

How big is the Indian market?

“In 2017, the newly added grid-connected capacity of solar energy in India reached 8.04GW. According to the fiscal year of India, this figure was raised to 10.03GW. In the first half of this year, the new grid connection was close to 6GW.” Cao Junru, an analyst at Jibang New Energy Research Center It is pointed out that as of the end of June, the total amount of solar grids connected to India reached 24GW. According to the Indian government's plan, the installed capacity will target the 100 GW target around 2020.

As the second largest component demanding country in the world after China, PV InfoLink's latest statistics show that after China's "531 New Deal", India's component demand accounted for 13.6% of the world. According to the statistics of the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products, from January to May this year, China's total exports of photovoltaic products was 7.444 billion US dollars, up 31.8% year-on-year. India is the largest market for China's battery chips and components, accounting for more than 90% of the market.

According to customs data, China's exports to India in the first half of the year were about 3.59 GW, and the battery exports exceeded 700 MW. Although the export volume of components has decreased year-on-year, India's dependence on China is still high.

What is the impact of tariffs?

In fact, India has initiated anti-dumping investigations for a long time. Wang Bohua, Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, analyzed the “simplified timeline”: In 2012, India announced anti-dumping investigations on solar cells in China, the United States and other countries. After two years, there was no tax settlement; in 2017, India again declared anti-dumping duties. The investigation was terminated in the year; it was initiated again on July 16 this year and finally levied.

"In the past eight years, the concentration of China's photovoltaic products export market has continued to decrease, and the blooming situation of emerging markets has continued to expand." Wang Bohua believes that "the facts prove that trade protection is not the way out."

Many people believe that India's implementation of safeguards tariff measures "will affect the enthusiasm of China's PV products to India to a certain extent, reduce shipments and profits. But India's domestic battery and module capacity is insufficient, still need to rely on a large number of imports, tariffs Too high will lower the installed capacity of its own market and push up the construction cost of photovoltaic power plants."

Industry analysts also predict that the Indian market will shrink. "India is facing problems such as stagnant demand for electricity and financial regulation. The tariff policy will deteriorate this situation to a certain extent." Cao Junru analyzed that component demand in India will shrink to 2.4GW-3.5GW in the second half of the year. Will drop to 8.5GW-9.6GW.

"The purpose of the new tariff policy in India is very obvious, in order to protect its local production capacity, which is relatively backward in terms of quality, scale and price." Cao Junru believes that with the implementation of the "5 ̇ 31 New Deal", the price of domestic PV products will go down, and Continued excess capacity needs to find a seaport. “This makes China's components even more competitive with the tariff of 25%, and it is also competitive in the Indian market, which weakens the protection of tariffs.”

PV InfoLink statistics show that the current domestic production capacity of India's own components is about 6GW, and the cell chip production capacity is about 2.5GW. Cao Junru pointed out: "In the context of insufficient local production capacity, lack of competitiveness in quality and price, 25% of tariffs will impact India's domestic market demand."

What about Chinese companies?

"The new tariff policy will definitely affect the pace of Chinese PV companies entering the Indian market, but the main part of the global PV industry chain is in China. This hardware condition has not changed." Zhang Shiguo, vice chairman and secretary general of the New Energy Overseas Development Alliance, pointed out that In the international market to increase the intensity of the layout, taking into account trade and investment, "must disperse the country, not excessive concentration."

In fact, the global PV market is “decentralized” and Wang Bohua believes that “there is no pessimism about the global market”. According to statistics from the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, although India is the country with the largest export volume of photovoltaic cells and modules in China, China's major PV export markets are also accelerating the transfer to emerging markets such as Australia, Mexico, Pakistan and Brazil. For example, in the near future, Trina Solar has just entered into cooperation with Vietnam's largest private PV project, which will supply 258MW of PERC single-crystal double-glass components.

In addition, enterprises directly build factories in India to expand production capacity, which can avoid the impact of taxation. Some PV leading enterprises have already built factories in Southeast Asia a few years ago. India is a key area, and tariffs have little impact on these enterprises.

In addition, the new tax increase policy is mainly aimed at China and Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand's photovoltaic products will have a new competitive advantage in the Indian market in the future, China's PV companies are starting to supply the Indian market from Vietnam and Thailand, thus exempting tariff restrictions.

“In 2017, Trina Solar's cell capacity in Vietnam is around 1GW. Our factory in Thailand also has 1GW of cell capacity and 750MW of module capacity last year.” Trinity Solar's vice president, Yin Rongfang, said In response to the US “double opposition”, Vietnam and Thailand factories mainly supply European and American markets, and now they will make full use of this advantage to serve the Indian market and broaden the global sales layout. In conjunction with BridgetoIndia, a well-known consulting firm in India's new energy industry, Trina Solar's market share in India exceeds 25% in 2016. In 2017, Trina Solar's component shipments in the Indian market exceeded 1.5GW.

Zhang Shiguo also stressed that China's PV industry should pay more attention to comprehensive service capabilities in the process of overseas investment. "It is necessary to properly expand with local partners, invest in power stations, do engineering contracting, and get involved in energy services, and transfer more links in the industrial chain to overseas."

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